Primaries, caucuses, conventions, court cases -- oh, it's a lot. Hannah and Nick have the most important dates and some crucial context for your calendar this election year. Buckle up, 2024 is already underway.
Check out our recommended listening for more helpful info!
Stranglehold: Make Room (for context on New Hampshire and its hold on the first in the nation Primary)
By the way, it isn't too late to snag a Civics 101 baseball hat! Donate now and show the world you know what's going on.
PSA: Shortly after this episode dropped, Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary. Though Nikki Haley is still running, many reporters, analysts and the RNC itself see this as a sign that Trump is the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee.
Transcript
Hannah McCarthy: [00:00:01] It's 2024, Nick.
Nick Capodice: [00:00:03] 2024 I'm still right in 1998 on my checks, Hannah.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:00:10] And you know, Nick, I have more than a little anxiety going into this year. I think my uncle put it best at my cousin's baby shower the other day when he said, "talking politics used to be fun. Now I get kicked out of bars."
Nick Capodice: [00:00:23] Sure. Yeah.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:00:25] Now the hole in my day things were obscurely better is a common [00:00:30] refrain. I find myself making it already. At some point. Millennials got old and I am one of them. And now I spend every day talking about Jordan Catalano. Uh, but I digress because I think my uncle had a point. Yeah, maybe.
Nick Capodice: [00:00:45] Not the whole kicked out of places thing.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:00:48] But the having fun talking politics thing, right? Most of this year will be politics because spoiler alert, there is a general election on November 5th. And [00:01:00] spoiler alert my birthday is the day right after that.
Nick Capodice: [00:01:03] So what could be more political than that?
Hannah McCarthy: [00:01:06] So without further ado, this is Civics 101. I'm Hannah McCarthy, I'm Nick Capodice. And as we look ahead into 2024, I'm going to give you the fun option. And that is being the person who knows when things are happening. Because actually, this is a year when knowing when things are happening, as in elections, debates, court cases [00:01:30] means that you will be someone who is truly paying attention to the potential future of the place where you live. At the very least, you won't be blindsided when what comes to pass comes to pass. If all else fails and you don't find this fun, we can, like, make birthday costumes together.
Nick Capodice: [00:01:51] Hey, what's a birthday costume, Hannah?
Hannah McCarthy: [00:01:53] Theme dependent Nick.
Nick Capodice: [00:01:54] And onto the episode.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:02:04] All [00:02:00] right, 2024. Here we go. Right now it is January. I wanted to wait a beat to release this episode so that I could at least tell you one thing that I do know for sure about 2024, and that is that former President Donald Trump won the Republican Iowa caucus. He set a record, in fact.
Nick Capodice: [00:02:23] Oh he did.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:02:23] Yeah, nearly 30 percentage points, smashing the previous record held by Bob Dole in 1988 [00:02:30] by a lot.
News Archival: [00:02:31] What are we to make of the results in Iowa? What do they tell us about the Republican Party? If only a third of the Republicans in Iowa participate in the caucuses? And what does the fact that most party members don't participate in the nominating contests tell us about the voting process to help us think about.
[00:02:45] And it kicked off our caucus and primary season, which I presume in this election is mostly of interest to Republicans and independents.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:02:53] Well, that is where the real contest lies, probably.
Nick Capodice: [00:02:57] As in, this is a reelection [00:03:00] year, meaning the Democrats are, for the most part trying to keep their president in office. The Republicans are trying to unseat him. By contrast, in years where presidents time is up like 2016, the primary is a big deal for both parties, correct?
Hannah McCarthy: [00:03:16] Okay, so Joe Biden is running against two what you might call longshot candidates. That's Marianne Williamson, a self-help author, and Dean Phillips, a US representative. Donald Trump is running against former South Carolina Governor Nikki [00:03:30] Haley. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was trying to get that nomination recently, dropped out of the race. Now, depending on the state, you might call Haley less of a long shot than Biden's challengers. And then there are three independent candidates professor and activist Cornel West, doctor and activist Jill Stein, and lawyer and activist Robert F Kennedy Jr, who, by the way, had been running as a Democrat but switched to independent.
Nick Capodice: [00:03:58] Actually worth mentioning. Hanna, I [00:04:00] heard that RFK Jr is attempting to establish new political parties in some states instead of registering as an independent.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:04:08] Okay, wait. Hang on. Uh. More, please.
Nick Capodice: [00:04:11] Well, it turns out if you run unaffiliated aka independent, you need way more signatures to get on the ballot. So if he runs under a registered party, he needs fewer signatures. And of course, those states have to accept his applications for brand new parties.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:04:27] Okay, you see, this year is [00:04:30] wild. There is so much to know. But really, either way, it is the Republican caucus and primary season that is getting the most attention. So what is even happening this year? Well, for one thing, go listen to our episode on primaries and caucuses. We will put a link in the show notes for you. Those are the elections that will help parties determine their nominees and.
Nick Capodice: [00:04:52] How they help varies state to state, but basically whomever wins the most votes gets the most delegates at [00:05:00] the nomination.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:05:01] Basically, you need 1215 delegates to win that nomination. Trump currently has 20 as of the Iowa caucuses, DeSantis has nine, Haley has eight.
Nick Capodice: [00:05:14] So what's going to happen there?
Hannah McCarthy: [00:05:16] What do I look like?
Nick Capodice: [00:05:17] Allan Lichtman a little bit?
Hannah McCarthy: [00:05:19] Allan Lichtman, by the way, the guy who has accurately predicted every presidential winner since 1982, also a professor of history at American University.
News Archival: [00:05:29] You got right [00:05:30] every time except 2000. I didn't oh, I'm kidding, Florida did. That's right. It was a stolen election, right? I wrote the report for the US Commission on Civil...
Hannah McCarthy: [00:05:41] Anyway, I am not going to make any predictions because I really don't have the ability to do that.
Nick Capodice: [00:05:46] Anna, do you think that once AI reaches Minority Report levels, we're not even going to have to have an election anymore? We just say, well, the precogs say everyone is going to vote for this person, so don't bother.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:05:57] I do not think that, Nick, mostly because [00:06:00] we love spectacle more than we love maybe anything in America. So basically, what is going to happen on the Republican side is that we're all going to watch, and many of us are going to vote, and we'll see if basically life is difficult or relatively easy for the Trump campaign.
Nick Capodice: [00:06:16] Because he is the most likely nominee.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:06:18] Bingo. And that can change. It's early days yet. No, wait, real quick.
Nick Capodice: [00:06:24] Did the Democrats have an Iowa caucus this year, too?
Hannah McCarthy: [00:06:27] I'm glad you asked this, because I think what happened [00:06:30] for the Democrats in Iowa highlights that each state is very different in terms of the year to come, and each party is very different. The Dems did have a caucus, but they just used it to do business. And by the way, the good people of Iowa can mail in their nominee votes now through March 5th and March 5th is a big date. Nick, do you know why?
Nick Capodice: [00:06:52] Oh, okay, I think I know why this is.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:06:55] I think you do. Why is it?
Nick Capodice: [00:06:57] Well, the DNC, [00:07:00] the Democratic National Committee made a change that bothered. Two states in particular. And that change was sorry everybody. We're moving the first in the nation caucus primary state to South Carolina.
News Archival: [00:07:14] States with predominantly white voters just simply didn't reflect the diverse Democratic base. Now, the party's new presidential primary calendar, slated to start next February in South Carolina, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire days later, Georgia a week [00:07:30] after that, and Michigan at month's end.
Nick Capodice: [00:07:32] And I'm pretty sure Iowa complied, but I know for a fact who did not comply.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:07:38] All right, go on then, New Hampshire. Sure didn't. And depending on when you are listening to this episode, their noncompliance may have already happened. January 23rd, the New Hampshire primary.
News Archival: [00:07:50] Political junkies, buckle up. New Hampshire just picked a major fight with the Democratic National Committee just a short time ago, scheduling its primary for January 23rd, [00:08:00] 2024. It's being seen as an so...
Nick Capodice: [00:08:03] Really quick the DNC said, hey, uh, South Carolina is more diverse. It's more representative of the nation. So guess what? They get to go first now. But also the thing is, Biden lost in both Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020 before turning things around in South Carolina. And a lot of people say that is the reason the primary was moved. By the way, our colleagues made a whole podcast about New Hampshire and the primary called stranglehold. [00:08:30] And the last episode of that series covers exactly this. We highly recommend a listen.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:08:34] Speaking of listening, at least to the Democratic National Committee, in this case, New Hampshire is not the first in the nation. Primary is in their Constitution, they say, and that is that. And the DNC says, fine, but your primary will be meaningless to us. Biden isn't even registered in New Hampshire, and the DNC pledges not to seat New Hampshire delegates at the convention in the summer. [00:09:00] But it's worth mentioning this has happened in the past. In 2008, both Michigan and Florida held their primaries earlier than the rules allowed, and by the Democratic National Convention, the DNC had caved and allowed their delegation to vote anyway. Either way, New Hampshire Democrats are conducting a rioting campaign because whoever gets these still largely symbolic Democratic win in New Hampshire will still matter. In terms of optics.
Nick Capodice: [00:09:25] Are the court of public opinion.
News Archival: [00:09:27] That write in campaign will mean thousands of votes need to [00:09:30] be hand counted on primary night, but election officials say it's not going to delay the results. It would definitely be more complicated if there were a lot of...
Hannah McCarthy: [00:09:37] So the 23rd, the day this year episode appears in your feed, will be the day we find out how the Republican candidates fare in a state that still garners a ton of attention in the primary season. It is also the day we will see how this strange write in campaign goes for the Democrats. So I don't know, definitely worth national attention, which [00:10:00] keeps New Hampshire right where it wants to be.
Nick Capodice: [00:10:02] All right, so those are the especially early states in this nail biter of a 2024, one of which the DNC is pretending doesn't exist, like a kid who is continuing to misbehave and you just ignore it pre 2000 parenting style. Yeah. All right. So what happens after that?
Hannah McCarthy: [00:10:21] I'm going to get to what happens right after that and February after the break.
Nick Capodice: [00:10:25] But before that break it is our podcast fundraiser. You know these [00:10:30] fundraisers don't come along every day and we've got some really cool swag for you. We've got a hat and we have some fine merino wool socks crafted right here in New Hampshire. You can get both the hat and the socks for a $10 a month donation at our website, civics101podcast.org, or just click the link in the show notes.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:10:55] All right, we're back. And, Nick, right before the break, you asked me what happens after [00:11:00] the January 23rd New Hampshire primary. Well, after that comes February, during which South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan say hello, South Carolina.
Nick Capodice: [00:11:11] The one who the DNC says is the actual first in the nation primary.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:11:15] Correct. And then Nick comes March.
Nick Capodice: [00:11:19] Are the Ides of March. This is Super Tuesday, am I right? Yep.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:11:23] March 5th has a ton of primaries, 16 states this year, and.
Nick Capodice: [00:11:28] Super Tuesday is [00:11:30] a thing.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:11:31] Why? Uh, partially tradition. We have had some version of it since the 1970s and partially politics. Duh. Having a large block of states, especially in a region of the country, or to cast their votes on the same day, means a candidate who doesn't do so hot in an early state gets a chance to win big soon thereafter.
Nick Capodice: [00:11:52] And Super Tuesday is usually a clarifying day, right? Basically, a lot of delegates are won on this day and give a better indication [00:12:00] of who will get that final nomination, especially in a year where there is a non-incumbent running. Super Tuesday is when a lot of candidates drop out, and the delegate thing itself is really complicated.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:12:14] Oh yeah. Again, please listen to our episode on primaries and caucuses because it is complicated and some delegates are pledged or bound and some are not. And it's just like, I don't know, Nick. Like basically, I think those people who fully understand the math here and build strategies [00:12:30] on it are amazing and frightening, like people who start successful businesses or people who can paint their fingernails on their dominant hand without messing up.
Nick Capodice: [00:12:39] Just like that. Hannah. Uh, but also, I happen to know that two states, Colorado and Maine, will also be holding primaries on March 5th, and both of them have barred Trump from the ballot.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:12:52] Ah, yes. Just when we thought it was a straight shot from here to Election Day. So Trump is still on the ballot in Colorado and Maine, and we are going [00:13:00] to have to wait and see what the Supreme Court has to say about that. Massachusetts and Illinois are also moving forward with Trump ballot objections. So the.
Nick Capodice: [00:13:09] Supreme Court is ruling on this as of.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:13:11] January 5th. They agreed to take on the Colorado question. They also know that it has to be done quickly. So they're going to have arguments on February 8th.
Nick Capodice: [00:13:20] So there could, in theory, be other states that do not have a presidential hopeful on the ballot.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:13:26] Other states like New Hampshire. Right. But the difference between this and the New [00:13:30] Hampshire DNC debacle is that people can actually write in Biden's name on their ballots in New Hampshire, and the votes will be counted, even if the DNC says those delegates will not. If people write in Trump's name, in states where the court affirms that he is barred, those write ins will be thrown out.
Nick Capodice: [00:13:46] Is that the most that the Supreme Court has been involved in a presidential election since Bush v Gore? When the court, in a super narrow opinion, settled a Florida general election recount and George Bush was awarded the presidency.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:13:59] That is what folks are saying. [00:14:00]
News Archival: [00:14:00] You and I had a conversation yesterday and Bush v Gore came up and you were comparing this to that. Can you talk a little bit about that for us?
News Archival: [00:14:11] Yeah. I mean, um, not to be flip about it, but Bush v Gore was, uh, you know, nursery school compared to this. Um, that was a very narrow case.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:14:23] So anyway, Scotus has been urged to please issue an opinion by March 5th, which is so fast, [00:14:30] by the way.
Nick Capodice: [00:14:31] Wow. By Super Tuesday. And while we're here, I know there was another case the Supreme Court was asked to take up and fast track another case involving Trump.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:14:41] Yeah, this is relevant. The immunity case. In other words, does former President Trump have, as he and his lawyers claim, immunity from prosecution for charges against him, those charges being that he plotted to overturn the 2020 election.
Nick Capodice: [00:14:57] And the immunity being because he [00:15:00] was president at the time of the actions for which he's being charged. Yeah.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:15:04] Now, the Supreme Court declined to fast track this case. So it was heard by a D.C. circuit Court of appeals on January 9th. This appeal is about a couple of things. A lower court said Trump does not have absolute immunity. So the appeal is asking the circuit court to determine whether Trump is, in fact, immune. The judges seemed really skeptical of the immunity claim at this trial. This [00:15:30] is also about delaying the trial that will happen if this Circuit Court of Appeals agrees with the lower court and determines that Trump is not immune. The court could also, by the way, just say that Trump has no standing in the appeals court at this point in litigation, and the trial will just go forward anyway. But no matter what happens, this is probably eventually going to be appealed up to the Supreme Court. And. Time is a wastin. So that circuit court is probably going to issue a ruling soon. Uh, maybe it has even happened [00:16:00] by the time you're listening to this. I will add it to the show notes when it does.
Nick Capodice: [00:16:03] And this is one of several cases Trump is facing this election year. Right.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:16:08] Which and this gets to the relevant part, could definitely affect Trump's ability to campaign and debate, although only one of those trials is actually set in stone. It started on January 16th. E Jean Carroll seeking damages for defamation. Now, this case was actually just recently delayed due to a sick juror, but it will continue on. An earlier [00:16:30] case found Trump guilty of sexual abuse against Carol, and Trump lost a series of appeals following that decision. And this current case is about Carol suing over statements Trump made about her when he was no longer president. But in terms of votes, Nick, an NPR PBS NewsHour Marist poll, found that two thirds of Republican voters would still vote for Trump if he is convicted of a crime.
Nick Capodice: [00:16:54] The next two months, Hannah. My goodness.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:16:58] Yeah, we shall see. So [00:17:00] even though Super Tuesday is major, primaries will continue through March, April and May right into June 4th, that is the last major block when the District of Columbia votes along with Montana, new Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. The US Virgin Islands and Guam have Democratic caucuses on the 8th of June. Their Republican caucuses are earlier.
Nick Capodice: [00:17:22] And neither of those territories have electoral votes in the presidential election.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:17:26] That's right. Nor do the Northern Mariana Islands or Puerto Rico [00:17:30] who vote in March and April, respectively. But the way a candidate fares in all territories still matters prior to the nomination, because they do get to send delegates to the conventions. And by the way, people born in these territories are US citizens, and if they want to vote in a general election, they can, but they have to reside in one of the 50 US states in order to do it. And by the way, that general election happens. Drum roll please. [00:18:00]
Nick Capodice: [00:18:00] I don't have a drum. Wait, I have a melodica.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:18:03] Yeah. Yeah. Okay.
Nick Capodice: [00:18:09] How was that?
Hannah McCarthy: [00:18:11] That was so much better than I could have hoped for. Okay. Thank you so much. Uh, July 15th through 18th for the GOP and August 19th through 22nd for the Democratic Party, which will be right after one of my best friends gets married.
Nick Capodice: [00:18:26] Anna, this episode's supposed to be about the 2024 election, and I kind [00:18:30] of feel like you're really making it about yourself. No offense. No.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:18:33] None taken. So then there are the scheduled presidential debates after that.
Nick Capodice: [00:18:37] After that, as in, after we know whether it'll be Biden versus Trump or Biden versus Haley.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:18:42] Barring something very unusual. Yes. So the Commission on Presidential Debates picked September 16th for the first presidential debate. Then there will be a vice presidential debate on September 25th, then October 1st and ninth debates, and then that's it. And [00:19:00] that is also right before another one of my best friends gets married. Uh, speaking of, I've got another national committee fight for you.
Nick Capodice: [00:19:08] You're speaking of the other wedding or the.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:19:10] Rnc has beef with the Commission on Presidential Debates. You can learn all about them in our episode on presidential debates. Yet another link down there in the show notes for you. The RNC claims that this organization is biased, even though they're nonpartisan, and has said that they might make Republican candidates sign a pledge not to participate in their events.
Nick Capodice: [00:19:28] Wow. Is [00:19:30] it just me, Hannah? Or is there more political fighting than there was, you know, a decade ago? Are you.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:19:35] Just, um, noticing this.
Nick Capodice: [00:19:36] Now? I was making a joke.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:19:38] Okay. Very good. I'll tell my uncle. Uh, either way, Trump promises to debate Biden if given the chance, which he certainly believes he will have.
Nick Capodice: [00:19:47] And then Hannah then comes November.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:19:51] Righto. The general election, the first Tuesday in November. That is when we pick a president.
Nick Capodice: [00:20:00] You [00:20:00] know, it feels both very far away and desperately imminent.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:20:06] Indeed. I think it's both.
Nick Capodice: [00:20:07] So okay. I guess we can just say this is going to be quite a year.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:20:16] But at least now listeners have the option of pulling out their phone or datebook or Palm Pilot or whatever, and merely listing off the dates of major political events in case of a contentious bar conversation.
Nick Capodice: [00:20:28] Well, nothing allows cooler heads to prevail [00:20:30] better than cold, hard dates.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:20:33] You never know. It could be true. You can throw niche podcast hosts birthday in there if you want to have some real fun. I mean, Nick, it is not nothing that I was born on an election day.
Nick Capodice: [00:20:46] Here we go.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:20:46] Doesn't that seem like fate to you? I think it's fate.
Nick Capodice: [00:20:49] Well, you know what the man says, Hannah, right?
Hannah McCarthy: [00:20:52] What's that?
Nick Capodice: [00:20:52] If it be now, tis not to come. If it be not to come, it will be now. If it be not now, [00:21:00] yet it will come. The readiness is all. You know what's funny? It's that in Hamlet. It's the readiness. And in King Lear it's the ripeness, you know, which means maybe King Lear is like a little more. He's, you know, had a little time to think about it. He's had a lot of time to think about. Well, he's older. Yeah. He's older.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:21:17] He's a lot older.
Nick Capodice: [00:21:18] Yeah. And his uh. Oh yeah. And his and his daughter's like okay, that's she says a whole lot of nothing. That's what she says.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:21:27] That's good.
Nick Capodice: [00:21:28] Did you ever hear so much talk [00:21:30] about nothing. Yeah. That's enough chatter right okay.
Hannah McCarthy: [00:21:50] That does it for this episode. And do keep in mind that whenever you listen to this, some of the things that we're talking about may have changed like a lot. [00:22:00] Know your dates. Pay attention this year, people. So much is happening. And I don't just mean my dear friends' nuptials. Oh, but also one of my best buds just had a baby like three days before the Iowa caucus. What a year. You know, what a year for me, but also for you. This this is an important year for you. Okay. This episode was produced by me, Hannah McCarthy with Nick Capodice. Christina Phillips is our senior producer. Rebecca Lavoie is our executive producer. Music. In this episode by [00:22:30] Duke Herrington, spring gang, OTE, Andreas Dahlback and El Flaco Collective. You can get the transcript for this episode, as well as listen to all of our other episodes at our website, civics101podcast.org. And while you're there, you can ask us any question you please, especially in such a year as this. I mean, come on again, that's Civics101podcast.org. Civics 101 is a production of NHPR, New Hampshire Public Radio.